(no subject)

[plonq]

I made the mistake of bringing up the "Monty Hall" theorem yesterday.  That entailed 30-minutes of diagrams and explanation to convince a co-worker of the answer.  At one point I actually ran some simulation software for him to illustrate the odds in practise.

He still didn't get it.  "It's 50/50 I tell you!"

I finally drew a multi-coloured grid to represent the three doors in all three states, and it finally clicked for him.  He grudgingly admitted that, as counter-intuitive as the answer is, he could see that it worked.  I'll have to keep this diagram in mind the next time I feel masochistic enough to bring this one up again.

Comments

[neowolf2.livejournal.com]

The way I explain this is to generalize to N doors, and have Monty open N-2 of them. The correct conclusion becomes easier to see.