Monty Hall
Apr. 24th, 2007 10:33 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
plonqI have almost reached the point where I won't even discuss this one with most people because I am tired of having them dig in their heals and argue "it's 50/50" in the face of solid evidence to the contrary. Here is a video that explains it fairly well, and failing that, a short summary that illustrates it better than anything I've seen in awhile.
For the Monty Hall problem, just remember there are two different ways you can choose a goat door initially (where you'll win if you swap and lose if you don't), and only one way you choose a car (where you'll lose if you swap and win if you don't).
1. choose goat A, Monty Hall opens door to goat B --> SWAP, win car
2. choose goat B, Monty Hall opens door to goat A --> SWAP, win car
3. choose car, Monty Hall opens door to goat (A or B) --> SWAP, lose car
That's 2 out of 3...
Speaking of foster cats (I wasn't, but I shall) somebody needs to come and adopt this cat sooner rather than later. She is starting to settle in and act like she owns the place. Click on the cut tag below and try to tell me that you don't have room in your house for this cat.
For the Monty Hall problem, just remember there are two different ways you can choose a goat door initially (where you'll win if you swap and lose if you don't), and only one way you choose a car (where you'll lose if you swap and win if you don't).
1. choose goat A, Monty Hall opens door to goat B --> SWAP, win car
2. choose goat B, Monty Hall opens door to goat A --> SWAP, win car
3. choose car, Monty Hall opens door to goat (A or B) --> SWAP, lose car
That's 2 out of 3...
Speaking of foster cats (I wasn't, but I shall) somebody needs to come and adopt this cat sooner rather than later. She is starting to settle in and act like she owns the place. Click on the cut tag below and try to tell me that you don't have room in your house for this cat.
